Habitat Patch Occupancy Dynamics of Glaucous-winged Gulls (larus Glaucescens) Ii: a Continuous-time Model

The diurnal distribution and abundance dynamics of loafing Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens) were examined at Protection Island National Wildlife Refuge, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. Asynchronous movement of gulls among three habitat patches dedicated to loafing was modeled as a function of environmental variables using differential equations. Multiple time scale analysis led to the derivation of algebraic models for habitat patch occupancy dynamics. The models were parameterized with hourly census data collected from each habitat patch, and the resulting model predictions were compared with observed census data. A four-compartment model explained 41% of the variability in the data. Models that predict the dynamics of organism distribution and abundance enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial organization of ecological systems, as well as the decision-making process in natural resource management.